The Eighth Workshop on Decadal Climate Variability Decadal Climate Predictability and Prediction: Where Are We?

Sponsors:
NASA - Physical Oceanography Program
National Science Foundation - Climate and Large-scale Dynamics Program
US Department of Energy - Office of Biological and Environmental Research
International CLIVAR Project, World Climate Research Program
US-CLIVAR Program

Major themes: "Decadal Climate Predictability and Prediction: Where Are We?" will be the main theme of the Workshop, with two sub-themes.

Nowcasting: Is it possible to estimate the present state of major DCV phenomena? Why, which variables/quantities, and how? Are presently available observations sufficient for nowcasting? If not, which additional observations are required? What are the requirements on dynamical and statistical models, and data assimilation systems for nowcasting? What preparatory work is required to establish scientific credibility of nowcast information? How much of the past DCV can be attributed to internal and forced phenomena? How to design and implement an international decadal climate nowcasting effort?

Forecasting: What is the potential predictability of major DCV phenomena? What further scientific progress is necessary to realize and to improve estimates of potential predictability? How to achieve the necessary progress? How to evaluate and reduce model deficiencies, including deficiencies in simulating statistics of weather phenomena? What is the effect of systematic model errors on forecast skill? Are presently available observations sufficient for forecasting? If not, which additional observations are required? What are the requirements on dynamical and statistical models, and data assimilation systems for forecasting? What is required to establish scientific credibility of forecast information? How to design and implement an international decadal climate forecasting effort?

Workshop Program
12 October 2009
7:30-8:30 AM	Registration and breakfast
8:30-8:45	Welcome and purpose of the Workshop Jerry Meehl NCAR, USA
8:45-9:00	NASA's continuing interest in decadal variability and predictability Eric Lindstrom NASA Headquarters - Physical Oceanography Program, USA
9:00-9:15	NSF's interest in decadal variability and predictability Jay Fein Climate and Large-scale Dynamics Program, National Science Foundation, USA
9:15-9:30	US-CLIVAR's interest in decadal variability and predictability David Legler US-CLIVAR Program, USA
9:30-10:00	A perspective on decadal climate variability and predictability Mojib Latif IFM-GEOMAR, Germany
Session 1: Observed characteristics of major decadal climate variability phenomena
10:00-10:30	Observed characteristics of decadal oceanic variability (INVITED) Tong Lee NASA Jet propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
10:30-11:00	Coffee Break
11:00-11:20	Observational evidence for propagation of decadal spiciness anomalies in the North Pacific Yoshi N. Sasaki, Niklas Schneider, Nikolai Maximenko, and Konstantin Lebedev International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii
11:20-11:40	Sea level rise assessed from altimeters, GRACE, and a non Boussinesq OGCM Y. Tony Song Nasa Jet Propulsion Laboratory
11:40-12:00	Decadal-to-Centennial modes of climate variability over the past millennium Edward R. Cook Tree-Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York
12:00-1:00	Lunch (provided)
1:00-1:30	Observed characteristics of decadal atmospheric and land climate variability (INVITED) Yochanan Kushnir Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, USA
1:30-1:50	The global trend in surface temperature and precipitation during the last three decades: Natural climate variations masking the anthropogenic influence Richard Seager and Yochanan Kushnir Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, USA
1:50-2:10	Decadal hydroclimate variability across the Americas Richard Seager, Yochanan Kushnir, and Mingfang Ting Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, USA
2:10-2:30	Low-frequency climate variability in the Atlantic basin: Future hurricane activity, Sahelian drought and West European blocking ridges Yves Tourre, S. Paz, Y. Kushnir, and W. B. White METEO-France, Toulouse, France & LDEO of Columbia University, USA
2:30-2:50	Decadal variability of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool and its association with atmospheric and oceanic variability in the NCEP-NCAR, SODA, and ECCO reanalyses Vikram M. Mehta and Hui Wang CRCES, USA
2:50-3:10	The role of North Atlantic SST in Levant precipitation variability during the Holocene Yochanan Kushnir and Mordechai Stein Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, USA
3:10-3:30	Coffee Break
3:30-5:30	Discussion
5:30-6:30	Icebreaker
6:30-	Dinner
13 October 2009
Session 2: Causes and mechanisms of major DCV phenomena
7:30-8:30 AM	Breakfast
8:30-9:00	Causes and mechanisms of major decadal climate variability phenomena (INVITED) Zengyu Liu Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA
9:00-9:20	Decadal variations of Indonesian throughflow transport inferred from 14 ocean data assimilation products Tong Lee Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, USA
9:20-9:40	A Global multidecadal oscillation Timothy DelSole George Mason University, USA
9:40-10:00	Relationship between decadal precipitation anomalies in the U.S. Great Plains and global SSTs: Insights from the IPCC multi-model ensemble Antonietta Capotondi NOAA/ESRL/PSD and University of Colorado/CIRES, USA
10:00-10:20	The Physical mechanisms by which the leading patterns of SST variability impact U.S. precipitation Hailan Wang, Siegfried Schubert, Max Suarez , and Randal Koster NASA/GSFC and UMBC/GEST, USA
10:20-10:50	Coffee Break
11:10-11:30	On the mechanism of Pacific multidecadal climate variability in CCSM3: The Role of subpolar North Pacific Ocean Zhengyu Liu and Yafang Zhong Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA
11:30-1:00	Discussion
1:00-2:00	Lunch
Session 3: Societal impacts of DCV phenomena
2:00-2:30	Decadal climate information needs (INVITED) Lisa Goddard International Research Institute, USA
3:00-3:20	Simulated impacts of tropical-subtropical decadal climate variability on dryland crop yields in the Missouri River basin Vikram M. Mehta and Norman J. Rosenberg CRCES, USA
3:20-3:40	Applications of decadal forecasts of ENSO in southeast US J. J. O'Brien COAPS, Florida State University, USA
3:40-4:00	Decade analysis of Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability based on TRMM satellite measurements Eric A. Smith and Amita V. Mehta NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, USA
	How Can We Quantify the Current State of Multi-Decadal Phenomena Like the PDO/AMO Timothy DelSole George Mason University, USA
	Coffee break
4:00-5:30	Discussion
6:30-	Dinner
14 October 2009
7:30-8:30 AM	Breakfast
Session 4: Nowcasting and Forecasting DCV phenomena and their societal impacts
8:30-9:00	Nowcasting DCV phenomena and their societal impacts (INVITED) Detlef Stammer KlimaCampus, University Hamburg, Germany
9:00-9:30	Nowcasting DCV Operational Ocean Analysis for Nowcasting DCV (INVITED) Tony Rosati NOAA-Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA Yan Xue NOAA-Climate Prediction Center, USA
9:30-10:00	Attribution of evolving climate conditions: A pathway to nowcasting (INVITED) Judith Perlwitz CIRES/University of Colorado, USA
10:00-10:20	Limits of Decadal Predictability Grant Branstator and Haiyan Teng National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
10:20-10:40	Coffee break
10:40-11:00	Challenges in predicting decadal climate variations given the uncertainties in understanding and modeling the decadal variability Rym Msadek, Tom Delworth, Keith Dixon , and Tony Rosati NOAA-GFDL and Princeton University, USA
11:00-11:20	An assessment of the potential predictability of interannual and decadal variability based on climate model simulations with specified SST Siegfried Schubert, Hailan Wang, Max Suarez, and Randal Koster NASA-GSFC- GMAO, USA
11:20-11:40	The prediction of non-stationary climate series based on Empirical Mode Decomposition Wang Geli, Yang Peicai, and Bian Jianchun
11:40-12:00	Climate impacts and predictability of forced and natural North Atlantic SST variability Mingfang Ting, Yochanan Kushnir, Richard Seager , and Cuihua Li Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, USA
12:00-12:20	Exploring the possibility to forecast annual mean temperature with IPCC and AMIP runs Peitao Peng and Arun Kumar NOAA-Climate Prediction Center, USA
12:20-1:30	Lunch
1:30-1:50	Simple ensemble generation method for decadal climate variability Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Masahide Kimoto, Mochizuki Takashi, and Masayoshi Ishii Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo, Japan
1:50-2:10	Predictability of multi-decadal climate variations in the Mediterranean "Hot Spot" Annarita Mariotti ESSIC, Univ. of Maryland, USA and ENEA, Italy
2:10-2:30	Predicting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability using subsurface and surface fingerprints Salil Mahajan, Rong Zhang, Thomas Delworth , Shaoqing Zhang, Anthony J. Rosati, and You-Soon Chang AOS Program, Princeton University, USA
2:30-2:50	Quantifying the role of ocean initial conditions in decadal prediction experiments performed with the model ECHAM5/MPI-OM Daniela Matei, Holger Pohlmann, Wolfgang Müller, Johann Jungclaus, Helmuth Haak , and Jochem Marotzke Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
2:50-3:10	Decadal predictions using HiGEM, a high resolution coupled climate model Len Shaffrey, Ian Stevens, Dave Stevens , and Pier Luigi Vidale National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, United Kingdom
3:10-5:00	Discussion
6:30-	Dinner
15 October 2009
7:30-8:30 AM	Breakfast
Session 4: Nowcasting and Forecasting DCV phenomena and their societal impacts
8:30-9:00	Decadal Predictions in the Pacific Region (INVITED) Gerald A. Meehl National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
9:00-9:30	Decadal Prediction using the Met Office Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) (INVITED) Jeff Knight, Doug Smith, James Murphy, and Holger Pohlmann Met Office Hadley Centre, United Kingdom
9:30-10:00	Forced and internal 20th century climate variability (INVITED) Noel Keenlyside, Alexander Strehz, Dietmar Dommenget, Mojib Latif, and Wonsun Park IFM-GEOMAR, University of Kiel, Germany
10:00-10:20	Pacific Decadal Oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction Takashi Mochizuki, Masahide Kimoto, Masayoshi Ishii, and Yoshimitsu Chikamoto Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan
10:20-10:40	Initial-value predictability of prominent modes of North Pacific subsurface temperature in a CGCM Limits of Decadal Predictability Haiyan Teng National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
10:40-11:00	Coffee Break
11:00-11:45	Discussion
11:45-12:00	Department of Energy's interest in decadal climate variability and predictability Anjuli Bamzai US Department of Energy, USA
12:00-1:00	Discussion of outline of Workshop report (to be published in BAMS)
End of Workshop
1:00-	Lunch

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