DecVar Workshop and Conference Information

The Seventh Workshop on Decadal Climate Variability

Co-sponsored by the NASA-Ocean Physics Program, NOAA-Climate Office/Climate Variability and Predictability Program, and NSF-Climate and Large-scale Dynamics Program

Venue: The Hilton Waikoloa Village, Waikoloa (near Kona), Hawaii

Dates: 30 April to 3 May 2007

Scientific Program Committee: Vikram Mehta (The Center for Research on the Changing Earth System)
Jim Carton (Univ. of Maryland)
Tom Delworth (NOAA-Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
Lisa Goddard (International Research Institute for Climate & Society, Columbia Univ.)
John Marshall (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Jay McCreary (International Pacific Research Center, Univ. of Hawaii)
Jerry Meehl (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

Co-sponsors: The NASA-Ocean Physics Program
The NSF-Climate and Large-scale Dynamics Program
The NOAA-Climate Office/Climate Variability and Predictability Program
The US-CLIVAR Office

Workshop Objectives:

To review progress in all aspects of decadal climate variability and predictability; and
To identify special physics of decadal climate variability and predictability.

Workshop Program
Sunday, 29 April 2007
5:00-7:00 PM	Registration on Kona Promenade
Monday, 30 April 2007
7:30 AM	Breakfast and Registration on Kona Promenade
8:30 AM	Welcome and Purpose of the Workshop Vikram M. Mehta The Center for Research on the Changing Earth System, Columbia, Maryland, USA
9:00 AM	Decadal Outlook for Satellite Observations for Climate Eric Lindstrom Ocean Physics Program, NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC, USA
Session 1:	Continental Climate (Chairman: Vikram Mehta, CRCES)
9:30 AM	Plans and Progress on a Coordinated Research Effort on Long-Term Drought: The US CLIVAR Working Group on Drought Siegfried Schubert and David Gutzler NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
10:00 AM	Climatic Changes in the American Cordillera Region in the Past 50 Years Henry F. Diaz NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA
10:30-11:00 AM	Break
11:00 AM	Trends in Maximum and Minimum Temperature Extremes in Select Regions of the United States Rebecca Smith, James O’Brien, Melissa Griffin Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USA
11:30 PM	Impacts of Ocean Basin Scale, Decadal Climate Variability Patterns on Hydro-meteorology in the Missouri River Basin in Boreal Spring and Summer Katherin Kullgren, Vikram Mehta, Norman Rosenberg, and Hui Wang The Center for Research on the Changing Earth System, Columbia, Maryland, USA
12:00 PM	Understanding Seasonality And Regionality Of Climate Trends Over The U.S. During 1950-2000 Hailan Wang, Siegfried Schubert, Max Suarez, Martin Hoerling, and Arun Kumar NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
12:30 PM	Testing A Retrospective Simulation Strategy Of Typhoon Seasons In SE Asia Hans von Storch and Frauke Feser Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center, Germany
1:00-1:45 PM	Lunch (provided)
1:45 PM	Climate Variability of Monthly Extremes and Associated Teleconnections Justin Brolley and James O’Brien Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USA
2:15 PM	Large-Scale Summer Monsoon Variability Over India Reconstructed From a Network of Tree-Ring Chronologies Along the Himalayan ‘Hinge Line’ Edward R. Cook Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, New York, USA
2:45 PM	Subseasonal-decadal linkage in Indian monsoon rainfall Arthur M. Greene and Andrew W. Robertson International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, New York, USA
3:15 – 3:45 PM	Break
3:45 PM	Seasonality and Interdecadal Changes in Variability of European Climate and its Links to Atmospheric Circulation Igor Zveryaev and Sergey Gulev P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS, Moscow, Russia
4:15 PM	Variability of Apalachicola River Discharge and Impacts on the Regional Oceanography Steven L. Morey and Dmitry S. Dukhovskoy Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction Studies, Florida State University Tallahassee, Florida, USA
4:45 PM	End of the Day’s Play
6:30 PM	Icebreaker on Lagoon Lanai
Tuesday, 1 May 2007
7:30 AM	Breakfast on Kona Promenade
Session 2:	Global, Arctic, and Atlantic Variability (Chairman: Jerry Meehl, NCAR)
8:30 AM	Decadal Variability and Sea Level Rise Gary Mitchum and R. Steven Nerem College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, USA
9:00 AM	Variability of the Oceanic Mixed Layer 1960-2004 Semyon A. Grodsky, James A. Carton, and Hailong Liu University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA
9:30 AM	Diagnosis of Decadal Variability of SST in a CGCM and in Nature Edwin Schneider and Meizhu Fan George Mason University/COLA, USA
10:00 AM	Time Scale Interaction Between Decadal Time Scales and the Annual Cycle Jens Moeller and Dietmar Dommenget IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel, Gemany
10:30-11:00 AM	Break
11:00 PM	Decadal Variability And Predictability In The Atlantic As Simulated By The GFDL CM2.1 Coupled Climate Model Thomas Delworth, Rong Zhang, and Keith Dixon NOAA-Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
11:30 PM	Applications Of 3d EOFs To Multi-Decadal Variability And Predictability Of The Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Ed Hawkins and Rowan Sutton Walker Institute, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
12:00 PM	Evidence For The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation As An Internal Climate Mode From Coupled GCM Simulations Jeff Knight and David Fereday Hadley Centre for Climate Change, Exeter, UK
12:30 PM	Mean & Variable Properties of Oceanic Diurnal Precipitation over Decadal Period from TRMM Observations Eric A. Smith, Amita Mehta, and Song Yang (CANCELLED) NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
1:00-1:45 PM	Lunch (provided)
1:45 PM	North Atlantic Decadal Variability of Ocean Surface Fluxes Mark A. Bourassa, Paul J. Jughes, Jeremy Rolph, and Shawn R. Smith Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USA
2:15 PM	Multidecadal Variability In The Winter And Summer NAO David Fereday, Jeff Knight, Adam Scaife, and Chris Folland Hadley Centre for Climate Change, Met Office, Exeter, UK
2:45 PM	Decadal And Multidecadal Variability In The West African Sahel Since The 17th Century Sharon Nicholson Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USA
3:15 PM	Decadal Variations In Climate Extremes And The North Atlantic Oscillation Adam Scaife, Chris Folland, Lisa Alexander, Anders Moberg, and Jeff Knight Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, UK
3:45-4:15 PM	Break
4:15 PM	Ocean Circulation, Eddies, Basin Oscillations, And Decadal Variability Of The Argentine Basin Lee-Lueng Fu Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
4:45 PM	Modeling Studies of the Ocean Response to a Tropical Cyclone Dmitry Dukhovskoy, Mark Bourassa, Steven Morey, and James O’Brien Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction Studies, Florida State University Tallahassee, Florida, USA
5:15 – 6:30 PM	Discussion: Causes and Mechanisms Zhengyu Liu and Niklas Schneider Which intrinsic causes and mechanisms have been tested conclusively? Which are promising candidates to test and how can they be tested?
6:30 PM	End of the Day’s Play
Wednesday, 2 May 2007
7:30 AM	Breakfast on Kona Promenade
Session 3:	Pacific Variability (Chairman: Nathan Mantua, Univ. of Washington)
8:30 AM	Coral Records Of Late 20th Century Warming And Freshening Trends In The Central Tropical Pacific Intan Nurhati, K.M. Cobb, and C.D. Charles Georgia Institute of Technology & Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA
9:00 AM	The Mid-1970s Climate Shift In The Pacific And The Relative Roles Of Forced Versus Inherent Decadal Variability Gerald A. Meehl and Aixue Hu National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
9:30 AM	Decadal Variability in the North Pacific: An Observationally-Constrained Idealized Model Bo Qiu, Niklas Schneider, and Shuiming Chen University of Hawaii at Manoa, Hawaii, USA
10:00 AM	North Pacific Decadal Variability in Community Climate System Model Version 2 Young-Oh Kwon and Clara Deser [1] Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; [2] National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
10:30-11:00 AM	Break
11:00 AM	Multi Decadal Climate Variability in Observations, IPCC-Models and a Simple Zero Order Ocean model Dietmar Dommenget IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel, Gemany
11:30 AM	The North and South Pacific Decadal Variability in Response to Perfectly Periodic ENSO Daeho Jin and Ben P. Kirtman George Mason University & COLA, USA
12:00 PM	Seasonal And Long Term Atmospheric Response To Reemerging North Pacific Oceanic Temperature Variability: The Combined Statistical And Dynamical Assessment Zhengyu Liu, Yun Liu, Lixin Wu, and R. Jacob Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA
12:30 PM	The Role Of The Ocean In Decadal Climate Variability In The North Pacific: What Is Takes To Model It Properly LuAnne Thompson and Jordan Dawe University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
1:00-1:45 PM	Lunch (provided)
1:45 PM	Kuroshio Large Meander Evolution in an Eddy-Resolving Global General Circulation Model Niklas Schneider, Bo Qiu, and Hideharu Sasaki International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii, USA
2:15 PM	Intrinsic Oceanic Decadal Variability In The North Pacific Generated In The Eastern Boundary Current System Emanuele Di Lorenzo and Niklas Schneider Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta and IPRC, University of Hawaii at Manoa, USA
2:45 PM	The Influence of North Pacific Decadal Variability on the Source of Upwelled Waters in the California Current System Kettyah C. Chhak and Emanuele Di Lorenzo Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
3:15 PM	Decadal Variability In The Indo-Pacific Ocean Inferred From Satellite Data, Modeling, And Data Assimilation Tong Lee NASA- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, USA
3:45-4:15 PM	Break
4:15 PM	Modulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation by the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Decadal Variability Vikram M. Mehta and Hui Wang The Center for Research on the Changing Earth System, Columbia, Maryland, USA
4:45 PM	Multi-Decadal Climate Oscillation In The Southern Hemisphere Simulated By A Climate Model Hyungmoh Yih, T. Motoi, W.-L. Chan, and I. S. Oh Research Institute of Oceanography, Seoul National University, Korea
5:15 – 6:30 PM	Discussion: Causes and Mechanisms Zhengyu Liu and Niklas Schneider Are solar, lunar, and volcanic forcings playing roles? How important are they? Which external causes and mechanisms have been tested conclusively? Which are promising candidates to test and how can they be tested?
6:30 PM	End of the Day’s Play
Thursday, 3 May 2007
7:30 AM	Breakfast on Kona Promenade
Session 4:	Variability of ENSO (Chairman: Bill Patzert, JPL)
8:30 AM	Analyses Of the Decadal Variability Of ENSO and the PDO Nate Mantua JISAO, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
9:00 AM	ENSO/Tropical "Weather" Interaction and Extreme El Nino Events Fei-Fei Jin Department of Meteorlogy, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Hawaii, USA
9:30AM	A Two-Oscillator View of Decadal ENSO Modulation Jin-Yi Yu, Fengpeng Sun, and Hsun-Ying Kao University of California, Irvine, California, USA
10:00 AM	A Delayed Action Oscillator Shared by ENSO and QDO in the Indian and the Pacific Oceans Warren B. White and Yves Tourre Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, La Jolla, California, USA
10:30-11:00 AM	Break
11:00 AM	The Role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation in Regulating its Background State De-Zheng Sun CU/CIRES/Climate Diagnostics Center &NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA
11:30 PM	Resonant Excitation of the Quasi-Decadal Oscillation by the 11-yr signal in the Sun’s Irradiance Warren B. White and Zengyu Liu Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego La Jolla, California, USA
12:00 PM	Predicting Near-Term Climate Change Arthur M. Greene and Lisa Goddard International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth Institute at Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA
12:30-1:15 PM	Lunch (provided)
1:15 – 2:45 PM	Discussion: Predictability and Prediction Vikram M. Mehta What is important to predict at decadal time scales? Is climate predictable at decadal time scales? Why?
2:45 – 3:30 PM	Concluding Session
End of the Workshop


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If Columbus had an advisory committee he would probably still be at the dock.

Justice Arthur Goldberg,1908-1990

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