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The CRCES Workshop on Decadal Climate Variability

Co-sponsored by: The NASA-Ocean Physics Program, the NSF-Climate Dynamics Program, The NOAA-Office of Global Programs, and the US-CLIVAR Office

Organizing Committee: Vikram Mehta (CRCES), Judith Lean (Naval Research Lab.), Eric Lindstrom (NASA Headquarters), William Patzert (Jet Propulsion Lab.), Andrey Proshutinsky (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute), Norman Rosenberg (Joint Global Change Research Institute and CRCES), Paul Schopf (George Mason Univ.), Hans von Storch (Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Centre), Warren White (Scripps Institution of Oceanography), and Janet Wood (CRCES)

The Airlie Center, Warrenton, Virginia, USA
17-20 October 2005
Sunday, 16 October 2005
  6:00-7:00 PM Registration
  7:00-8:00 PM Dinner in the Airlie Center Dining Room
Monday, 17 October 2005
  7:00 AM Breakfast in the Airlie Center Dining Room
Registration
  8:00-8:45 AM Welcome, Workshop Purpose, and Logistics
8:00 AM Gail Gilbert, Airlie Center
8:15 AM

Welcome presentation
Vikram Mehta, Center for Research on the Changing Earth System
8:30 AM Lindstrom, NASA-Ocean Physics Program
8:45 AM Janet Wood, Center for Research on the Changing Earth System
  9:00 AM

The National Research Council Decadal Survey
Eric Barron
Pennsylvania State University
USA
  9:30 AM The Reorganized US CLIVAR
David Legler
US-CLIVAR Office
USA
  10:00-10:30 AM Break
Session 1: Societal Impacts
(Chairman: Vikram Mehta)
1.1 10:30 AMFinding the Impacts of Decadal Climatic Variability on Agriculture, Forestry, Water Resources and Unmanaged Ecosystems
[Filesize: 0.31 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Norman Rosenberg
Joint Global Change Research Inst. and Center for Research on the Changing Earth System
USA
1.2 11:00 AMAtlantic Hurricanes: The True Story
[Filesize: 1.23 MB Type: PowerPoint]
James J. O’Brien
Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction Studies, Florida State University
USA
1.3 11:30 AMResults and Recommendations of a Workshop on "Observational and Modeling Requirements for Predicting Drought on Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales"
[Filesize: 5.28 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Siegfried Schubert
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center
USA
1.4 12:00 PMDecadal Variability of Tropical Cyclones: A Review
[Filesize: 3.96 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Vikram M. Mehta
Center for Research on the Changing Earth System
USA
  12:30-1:45 PM Lunch in the Airlie Center Dining Room
Session 2: Continental Climate (Chairman: Vikram Mehta)
2.1 1:45 PMAre Summer Climate Variations in North West Europe and West Africa Linked?
[Filesize: 3.51 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Chris Folland (1), Jeff Knight (1), David Fereday (1), Adam Scaife (1) , Jim Hurrel (2), Peter Baines (3)
(1) Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Exeter, UK (2) National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA (3) University of Melbourne, Australia
2.2 2:15 PMModeling of Tropical Forcing of Persistent Droughts and Pluvials over Western North America: 1856-2004
[Filesize: 9.86 MB Type: PDF]
Richard Seager, Yochanan Kushnir, Celine Herweijer
Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University
USA
Session 3: Poster Presentations (All posters will be displayed from the first day to the last day of the Workshop)
  2:45-3:15 PM Poster Introduction (3 minutes per poster)
  3:15-3:45 PM Break
  3:45-4:45 Poster Discussions
3.1 Tropical Instability Waves and Decadal Variability in the Tropical Atlantic
[Filesize: 14.52 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Raghu Murtugudde, Markus Jochum
Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland
USA
3.2 Sea ice drift and its relationship to altimetry-derived ocean currents in the Labrador Sea
S. Häkkinen and D.J. Cavalieri
NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center
USA
3.3 Regime Shift in Global SSTs
[Filesize: 0.10 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Sayaka Yasunaka, Kimio Hanawa
Tohoku University
Japan
3.4 Decadal to Secular Time Scales Variability in Temperature Measurement over France and Europe and its Relation with Climatic Indices
R. Abarca del Río (1), Olivier Mestre (2)
(1) Departamento de Geofísica (DGF), Universidad de Concepcion, Casilla 160-C, Concepcion, Chile; (2)
Météo-France, Ecole Nationale de la Météorologie, 31057 Toulouse Cedex, France
3.5 Predicting Decadal-Scale Drought/Flood Climate in Northern China
Geli Wang, Yang Peicai, Wang Yongqing , Zhu Yafen
3.6 Propagating Decadal Variability in the Pacific over the Past 100 Years
[Filesize: 2.24 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Christina Holland, Rob Scott
Institute for Geophysics, University of Texas
USA
3.7 Inter- and Multi-decadal Oscillations of the Thermohaline Circulation
Xiuhua Zhu(1,2), Johann Jungclaus(2), Jochem Marotzke(2)
(1)International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling(IMPRS-ESM); (2) Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Germany
Session 4: Discussion: Societal Impacts (Water, Agriculture, Health, Salinity and Sea
Level, Extreme Events)
  4:45-5:45 PM

Chairman: Hans von Storch

  1. What we know and can explain;
  2. What we do not know and would like to know;
  3. Where should (and should not) the research and resources be focused in the near (1-2 years), medium (2-5 years), and long (5-10 years) terms; and
  4. What fractions of effort should be devoted to empirical data collection and analysis, and to model experiments and analysis
  6:00-7:30 PM Icebreaker in the Whistling Swan
  7:30-8:30 PM Dinner in the Airlie Center Dining Room
Tuesday, 18 October 2005
  7:00-8:00 AM Breakfast in the Airlie Center Dining Room
Session 5: Forcings and Responses (Chairman: Zhengyu Liu)
5.1 8:00 AMSolar Forcing of Decadal Climate Variability
[Filesize: 13.33 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Judith Lean
Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC
USA
5.2 8:30 AMRadiative and Dynamical Impact of Volcanic Aerosols on Climate
[Filesize: 4.33 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Georgiy Stenchikov
Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ
USA
5.3 9:00 AMOcean Surface Heat and Momentum Fluxes
W. Timothy Liu, Xiaosu Xie, Wenqing Tang
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
USA
5.4 9:30 AMResponse of Tropical Global Ocean Temperature to the Sun's Quasi-Decadal UV Radiative Forcing of the Stratosphere
[Filesize: 17.59 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Warren B. White
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
USA
5.5 10:00 AMForced versus Inherent Decadal Variability and the Mid-1970s Climate Shift
[Filesize: 14.74 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Gerald Meehl, Aixue Hu
National Center for Atmospheric Research
USA
  10:30-11:00 AM Break
5.6 11:00 AMOceanic Response to Idealized Net Atmospheric Freshwater in the Pacific at the Decadal Timescale
[Filesize: 7.50 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Boyin Huang, Vikram Mehta, Niklas Schneider
The Center for Research on the Changing Earth System
USA
5.7 11:30 AMFreshwater Flux Variations and Impacts on the North Pacific Ocean
Roger Lukas
University of Hawaii
USA
5.8 12:00 PMBad Statistics-Somewhat of a Review
James J. O'Brien
Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction System, Florida State University
USA
  12:30-1:15 PM Lunch in the Airlie Center Dining Room
5.9 1:15 PMNoise Forcing and Coupled Feedbacks in Low Frequency North Atlantic SST Variability
[Filesize: 2.80 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Edwin K. Schneider, Zhaohua Wu, Meizhu Fan, Ben Kirtman
George Mason University/COLA
USA
5.10 1:45 PMModes of North Atlantic Annual Mean SST Variability
[Filesize: 7.04 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Dietmar Dommenget, Joerg Wegener
IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel
Germany
Session 6: Poster Presentations
  2:15-2:45 PM Poster Introduction (3 minutes per poster)
  2:45-3:15 PM Break
  3:15-4:15 PM Poster Discussions
6.1 A Simple Mechanism for ENSO Residuals and Asymmetry
Paul Schopf
George Mason University
USA
6.2 Origins of the Decadal Climate Variability in the Pacific Basin
[Filesize: 0.22 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Daniela Matei, Mojib Latif, Johann Jungclaus
International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Germany
6.3 Local Atmospheric Responses of CCM3 to the Prescribed SST Anomalies in the Mid-latitude North Pacific
Xuguang Sun and Xiuqun Yang
Institute of Severe Weather and Climate, Nanjing University
China
6.4 Causes of the 1976/77 North Pacific Climate Regime Shift
[Filesize: 2.28 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Lixin Wu, Dong Eun Lee, Zhengyu Liu
College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China and Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison,
USA
6.5 Decadal North Pacific Bred Vectors in a Coupled General Circulation Model
[Filesize: 0.08 MB Type: PDF]
Iouri Vikhliaev, Ben Kirtman, Paul Schopf
Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies
USA
6.6 Observed Relationships Between the El Nino/Southern Oscillation and the Extratropical Zonal-Mean Circulation
[Filesize: 0.50 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Michelle L’Heureux, David WJ Thompson
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center
USA
6.7 Decadal and Interdecadal Variability in Atmospheric Angular Momentum
R. Abarca del Río (1), A. Dai (2), G. Garric (3), C. Cassou (4)
(1) Departamento de Geofísica (DGEO), Universidad de Concepción, Casilla 160-C, Concepcion, Chile; (2) Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA; (3) MERCATOR, Ramonville St Agne - FRANCE; (4) CERFACS-SUC
6.8 Long-term Variability of Free Atmosphere in the Polar Regions
[Filesize: 4.29 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Alexander Makshtas (1), Valentina Maistrova (1), Sergey Shoutilin (1) , Vladimir Alexeev (2)
(1) Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, (2) International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska
USA
Session 7: Discussion: Observations
  4:15-5:15 PM

Chairmain: Warren White

  1. What we know and can explain;
  2. What we do not know and would like to know;
  3. Where should (and should not) the research and resources be focused in the near (1-2 years), medium (2-5 years), and long (5-10 years) terms; and
  4. What fractions of effort should be devoted to existing data collection and analysis, and future data collection
  7:00-8:00 PM Dinner in the Airlie Center Dining Room
Wednesday, 19 October 2005
  7:00-8:00 AM Breakfast in the Airlie Center Dining Room
Session 8: Global, Arctic, and Atlantic Variability (Chairman: Yochanan Kushnir)
8.1 8:00 AMModeling the Variability of Midlatitude Storm Activity on Decadal to Century Time Scales
[Filesize: 11.10 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Hans von Storch, Irene Fischer-Bruns
Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center
Germany
8.2 8:30 AMErrors in Sea Level Rise Estimates due to Decadal Variability
[Filesize: 3.41 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Gary Mitchum
College of Marine Science, University of South Florida
USA
8.3 9:00 AMObservations of Decadal Sea Level Variability
R. Steven Nerem, D. P. Chambers, T. Jakub, E. W. Leuliette , Gary Mitchum
University of Colorado
USA
8.4 9:30 AMDecadal Variability of the Arctic Ocean Based on Integration of Model Results with Observations
[Filesize: 17.89 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Andrey Proshutinsky
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
USA
8.5 10:00 AMMechanisms behind decadal variability of North Atlantic Deep Water in models of the Arctic-North Atlantic Oceans
[Filesize: 1.45 MB Type: PDF]
David A. Bailey, Peter B. Rhines, Sirpa Hakkinen, Paul Schopf
George Mason University, Climate Dynamics Program
USA
  10:30-11:00 AM Break
8.6 11:00 AMPolar Amplification: Definitions, Interpretations, and Problems
[Filesize: 1.78 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Dmitry Dukhovskoy, Andrey Proshutinsky, James O’Brien, Steven Morey
Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction Studies, Florida Sate University
USA
8.7 11:30 AMInter-decadal Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation
[Filesize: 1.58 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Adam Scaife, Jeff Knight, Geoff K. Vallis, Chris K. Folland
Hadley Centre for Climate Research and Prediction, Met Office
UK
  12:00-1:15 PM Lunch in the Airlie Center Dining Room
8.8 1:15 PMThe Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: A Signature of Thermohaline Circulation Cycles in Observed Climate
[Filesize: 8.29 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Jeff Knight, Rob Allan (1), Chris Folland (1) , Michael Vellinga (1) and Michael Mann (2)
(1) Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK (2) Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, USA
8.9 1:45 PMCoupled Ocean-atmosphere Response to the Tropical North Atlantic: Tropical Atlantic Dipole and ENSO
[Filesize: 3.27 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Lixin Wu, Feng He, Zhengyu Liu
College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China and Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison,
USA
Session 9: Pacific Variability (Chairman: Jerry Meehl)
9.1 2:15 PMExploring the Remote Climate Impact from the North Pacific Ocean
[Filesize: 2.20 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Zhengyu Liu, Lixin Wu, Yun Liu , Qingyu Liu, Xiaodong Liu
University of Wisconsin-Madison
USA
9.2 2:45 PMTropical Forcing of North Pacific Decadal Variability
[Filesize: 6.15 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Matt Newman
NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center
USA
  3:15-3:45 PM Break
Session 10a: Discussion: Modeling
  3:45-4:45

Chairman: Paul Schopf

  1. What we know and can explain;
  2. What we do not know and would like to know;
  3. Where should (and should not) the research and resources be focused in the near (1-2 years), medium (2-5 years), and long (5-10 years) terms; and
  4. What fractions of effort should be devoted to analysis of existing model output, and to future model experiments and analysis
Session 10b: Discussion: Predictability and Prediction
  4:45-5:45 PM

Chairman: Vikram Mehta

  1. What we know and can explain;
  2. What we do not know and would like to know;
  3. Where should (and should not) the research and resources be focused in the near (1-2 years), medium (2-5 years), and long (5-10 years) terms; and
  4. What fractions of effort should be devoted to statistical predictability and prediction studies, and dynamical predictability and prediction studies
  7:00-8:00 PM Dinner in the Airlie Center Dining Room
Thursday, 20 October 2005
Session 11: Pacific Variability (Chairman: Jerry Meehl)
  7:00-8:00 AM Breakfast in the Airlie Center Dining Room
11.1 8:00 AMDecadal-multidecadal Variability of El Niño Events in the Northern Hemisphere Winter and its Impacts on the Global Climate
[Filesize: 1.70 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Vikram Mehta and Carolina Fayos
The Center for Research on the Changing Earth System
USA
11.2 8:30 AMDecadal Variability of ENSO in a Hybrid Coupled Model
Robert J. Burgman
George Mason University/COLA
USA
11.3 9:00 AMMultiplicity of ENSO modes
[Filesize: 7.22 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Fei-Fei Jin
Department of Meteorology, Florida State University
USA
11.4 9:30 AMDecadal Changes in the Temperature of Subsurface Water Entrained into the Mixed Layer and its Effect on ENSO Evolution
[Filesize: 3.19 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Rong-Hua Zhang, Antonio Busalacchi, Ragu Murtugudde
Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland
USA
  10:00-10:30 AM Break
11.5 10:30 AMInterdecadal Variations in Tropical ENSO Teleconnections: Statistical Evidence and Possible Cause
Yochanan Kushnir, Richard Seager, John C.H. Chiang, Victor H. de la Peña
Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University
USA
11.6 11:00 AMOn the Connection Between South Pacific Subtropical Spiciness Anomalies and Decadal Equatorial Variability in an Ocean GCM
[Filesize: 5.15 MB Type: PowerPoint]
Yiyong Luo, Lewis Rothstein
Session 12: Presentation and Discussion of Revised Draft (Chairman: Vikram Mehta)
  11:30 AM Presentation and Discussion of Revised Draft
  1:00-2:00 PM Lunch in the Airlie Center Dining Room
    End of Workshop
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